ALL CHANGE IN FRANCE ...
China takes on new importance
By David Gosset

Since economic, political and strategic relations between Europe and China are not commensurate with their mutual appreciation and reciprocal attraction, a formidable potential for synergy between the two edges of the continent is still to be unleashed.

New French President Francois Hollande faces obvious but daunting challenges on the economic front at home and in the eurozone, but the nature of the relations he will forge with China, the 21st century's most important factor of change, will also define his presidency.

At a time when the distribution of power is shifting rapidly - when Nicolas Sarkozy became French president five years ago, France's gross domestic product (GDP) was 73% of China's GDP, it will be 33% in 2012 and less than 25% in 2017 - leaders


have to question their assumptions and reevaluate their priorities.

The new resident of the Elysee Palace and the leadership which will emerge from the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party of China can open a new chapter in the Sino-French relations, contribute to the deepening of the links between Brussels and Beijing and take Sino-Western synergy to another level.

Hollande, who does not share his predecessor's reverence for the United States, is in a position to have a more independent policy toward China, and if the White House has certainly gained a partner in its quest for economic growth, it can no longer view Paris as an acquiescent and unconditional ally.

At the coming 25th North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Chicago, which will focus on the alliance's commitment to Afghanistan, Hollande will announce the withdrawal of French troops from the Central Asian country before the end of the year.

To use the words of former French foreign minister Hubert Vedrine, Hollande considers France and the US as "friends, allies but not aligned" - "amis, allies mais pas alignes."

During his long campaign the socialist candidate underlined the importance of stable relations between the two permanent members of the UN Security Council - by contrast with the fluctuations of the Sarkozy era - but, in reference to the 27 billion euros (US$35 billion) trade deficit with China in 2011, also called for more balanced economic relations between the two countries.

The French president will meet his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao at the Group of 20 (G-20) Mexico summit, and only several hours after his historic victory he received Kong Quan, the Chinese ambassador to France, on May 7 for an encounter that followed a conversation with Charles Rivkin, the top American diplomat in Paris.

After a phone call with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the day of his election, the series of exchanges composed a highly relevant sequence in a century which will be largely characterized by the interactions between Washington, Brussels and Beijing. Besides, by choosing a China expert, Paul Jean-Ortiz, as his top diplomatic adviser three days after his victory, Hollande signaled that he put in place a team especially in step with the Chinese dynamics.

In his discussion with the Chinese envoy, Hollande vowed to further Sino-French cooperation, asked for the two countries to strengthen collaboration in the Group of 20 and insisted on the necessity to push forward economic links. Clearly, there is considerable space for improvement, the Sino-French trade represented in 2011 only 40% of the Sino-German trade whose amount reached 144 billion euros - a third of the total European Union-China trade.

A renewed bilateral relationship can certainly contribute to enlarge the horizon of the Sino-European relations, Paris can act as a catalyst for a more autonomous EU external policy toward Beijing. It is becoming urgent for the European policymakers to design mechanisms in order to attract Chinese investment in Europe - China will invest more than $1 trillion abroad in the coming decade - they should grant China market economy status. This in any case will be accorded to Beijing under the World Trade Organization rules from December 11 2016 - lift an inopportune and counterproductive arms embargo, closely consult China on security issues, and work on ambitious Sino-European cooperation in third countries - from Africa to Central Asia.

Some commentators have noticed that the relations between Beijing and the French left have been unsteady at times - it was under Francois Mitterrand at the beginning of the 1990s that Paris sold Lafayette-class frigates to Taiwan - and others have expressed concerns about the new French president's lack of international experience.

However, the 2012 French presidential election offers at least two obvious lessons. First, Hollande has systematically proved wrong those who underestimated him, and second, though his victory marks a return for more turbulent moments in politics, what will prevail is the political determination to put Sino-French relations into strategic and long-term perspective.

In his congratulatory message to the new French leader, Hu mentioned "the long-time friendship and cooperation between China and France which is significant in safeguarding and promoting global peace, stability and development".

In 1964 following the decision of Charles De Gaulle, France was the first among the major Western countries to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing at the ambassadorial level, and under Hollande's presidency, Paris and Beijing will celebrate the 50th anniversary of this historical moment.

Often neglected by international relations' theories, the chemistry between leaders is central to the reality of world affairs, and if the new French leader and his Chinese counterpart want this qualitative dimension to fully play its role, they will have to multiply the occasions for direct and relatively long interactions in the appropriate conditions.

While Sarkozy and Hu were never really able to work as a duo - they were in fact forced by the financial turmoil to simply normalize the relations after a too long period of mistrust - Hollande and Xi Jinping, China's most likely next leader, whose characters and styles seem highly compatible, might be able to match in their own way the understanding which characterized the connection between Jacques Chirac and Jiang Zemin.

On January 31, 1964, in the Elysee Palace, Charles De Gaulle concluded a press conference by a remark on what he called the "affinities" between France and China. These cultural and historical "affinities" have to be reactivated and serve as the fulcrum of a new joint global ambition.

The world is greatly benefiting from the French and Chinese humanistic traditions, but in a century of unprecedented interdependence, it is the quality of their articulation which can make a difference.


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/NE16Ad02.html